2008 Marin Real Estate Predictions
December 31, 2007
Posted by GingerWilcox |
Ginger Wilcox is a residential real estate agent with Pacific Union in Marin County, CA. For more information about real estate and life in Marin, visit Ginger’s Marin Real Estate Blog.
As 2007 closes out, here are my predictions for Marin Real Estate in 2008:
- Throughout Marin county, sales volume will pick up substantially in the spring. Both buyers and sellers waiting for the shakeout of the mortgage industry will jump back in to the action.
- Sellers in most southern and central Marin cities will be in the best position to put their homes on the market in the first half of the year.
- Sellers in Novato and parts of San Rafael need to be very realistic and aggressively priced to sell their homes. Hang on -2008 will still be rough.
- Buyers looking in Southern and Central Marin may have a difficult time finding good properties in the first quarter. Despite all the news reports, it is still a seller's market in many areas because there are not enough homes on the market.
- The "sweet spot" for sellers is the $2,000,000-$2,500,000 price point, particularly Southern and Central Marin. Buyers out looking in this price point just can't find decent homes in this range.
- Well priced properties that are properly prepared for sale (staged!) will sell in 2008. Pricing and preparation are everything.
- Buyers looking for a "deal" need to expect to do some work, and be very patient!
*Marin County Real Estate statistics pulled from BAREIS MLS on 12/29/2007.
- Over 35% in contract is usually indicative of a sellers’ market.
- Under 25% in contract is usually indicative of a buyers’ market.
- 25%-35% in contract indicates a balanced market.
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this is not a buyer's market yet
no one in Marin county (average age 38, average income $50k) can afford these houses, so a lot will have to change before it is truly a buyer's market. it's scandalous. the bubble is going to have to pop.
Housing Bubble?
I respectfully disagree. I do not believe housing prices in Marin are a "bubble". The average price of homes in Marin has steadily increased over the last 40 years. We have only seen one very small down period, in 1992. According to the Marin IJ in April 2007, "Marin County posted California's highest median income - $107,856."
Many people have reached farther than they could, and probably should have reached over the last few years. This is very unfortunate, and will result in homes being forclosed or sold at a loss. Some areas of Marin will be much more favorable to buyers over the next year. The city of Novato is clearly in a buyer's market right now.
Some areas- particularly in southern Marin, will not be favorable to buyers because of high demand and low supply. Marin housing remains desirable because of the close proximity to San Francisco and because of the high incomes in the area.
Limited Housing + Desirable Area
I agree with GingerWilcox's comments about the Marin market. Even in Novato, the housing prices are holding pretty steady. Sure, you can get a good deal on a 900-square-foot Crackerjack box in an iffy neighborhood, but any decent house in a place you'd want to live is still going for $650K or more; usually more.
The problem, or benefit, depending on how you look at it, with Marin, is that there is a very limited supply of housing, and there's not a lot of room to build more. That's great if you like the open space and farmland that makes Marin a great place to live, but not so hot if you're looking for lots of new subdivisions.
Since those new subdivisions simply don't exist here like they do in Sonoma County or the far reaches of the East Bay (Antioch, Tracy, Brentwood, etc.), I think the problem in Marin is only temporary. There's no glut in the housing market here, just a shortage of buyers due to the problems in the mortgage industry. That's going to change, though.